개인은 줄어든 반면 기업 달러예금은 빠르게 늘어났다. 기업 달러 예금 잔액은 510억3100만달러로, 전월 말(480억4400만달러) 대비 6.2% 증가했다. 이 기간에 개인 달러 예금(123억600만달러)은 3.8% 줄었다. 한 은행 관계자는 “수출기업들을 중심으로 고환율 흐름이 장기화될 가능성에 대비해 달러를 서둘러 매도하기보다 계속 보유하려는 심리가 반영된 것 같다”고 말했다.

지난달 안정세를 찾는 듯했던 원/달러 환율은 이달 다시 고공행진하는 흐름이다. 한국은행에 따르면, 이달 들어 28일까지 원/달러 환율(주간 종가 기준)이 1500원을 넘긴 것은 총 17거래일 중 9일에 달한다. 이날 원/달러는 1502.8원에 거래를 마쳤다. 이틀 중 하루는 1500원을 웃돈 것이다. 지난 22일엔 장중 1519.4원까지 치솟자 외환당국은 주간 거래 마감 직전 구두개입에 나서기도 했다.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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당분간 기업 달러예금 잔액 증가세는 이어질 것으로 보인다. 민경원 우리은행 이코노미스트는 “거주자의 해외주식 투자 수요는 다소 둔화됐지만, 달러 실수요를 대표하는 수입업체들의 결제 물량은 여전히 저가매수 형태로 꾸준히 유입되고 있다”며 “환율이 일시적으로 내려온 구간에서 기업들이 분할 매수에 나서는 흐름이 이어질 것”이라고 설명했다.
또 외국인 자금 흐름이 외환시장의 핵심 변수로 작용할 전망이다. KB국민은행이 자체 오차수정모형(ECM)을 활용해 환율 상승 요인을 분해한 결과, 외국인 국내 주식 순매도에 따른 달러 수급 요인이 환율을 20원 이상 끌어올리며 전체 상승 흐름을 주도한 것으로 나타났다. 이민혁 KB국민은행 이코노미스트는 “5월 환율 상승은 펀더멘털 전반의 악화보다는 외국인 국내 주식 수급 악화 영향이 컸다”고 판단했다.